Measuring 2.0: Longtailed´ness (part 1 of 5)

Weeks ago I announced to publish an idea of how to measure “2.0″. Being at the frontier of science, technology and learning with my blog thetawelle now for several years, I repeatedly asked myself how can I measure “2.0″. Everywhere you can read about “Web 2.0″ since Tim O’Reilly coined this buzzword and later on – afaik – registered it as a trademark, when he realized, that it was the ultimate joker addressing everything new, unknown and totally hip tech-stuff in the cyberspace.

Longtailed´ness
The Longtailed´ness is one of 5 important criteria for measuring if some service is 2.0. Following the motto “Little sheep give wool too” technological change introduced “The age of endless shelf-space”. The networked world created even for smallest demands niches big enough to create a market and to allow existence of a supplier for this demand.

The “Longtail” can easily be translated as “Little sheep give wool too” – but it should be added “…if you have enough of those little sheep”. Internet created a situation, where many people find a new space to meet each other. Also demand and supply increasingly meet each other more often on the net than anywhere else.

If millions of people travel the net, also millions of desires and niches pop up. Even the scariest or funniest or unimaginable ideas and requests will find more than one person on the net representing them. Niches are created everywhere through aggregation of those following these niche-subjects until the critical mass lets pop up a new internet-page -blog or -service for exactly this new niche.

Since the factors explained here should be clear catalysts of a dynamic of change and creation the longtailed’ness seems to be one of the most important factors among them. Longtailed’ness skyrockets because the costs of supply and demand meeting on the net decreased to nearly zero. Search-engines e.g. are one of the most important driving forces behind the creation of new niches, which might give birth to the next new web-service.

Sources of inspiration

Update 15.7.2008
One of the best examples of how the longtail changes the way things work can be recognized in the path development of german music tv took. Since MTV, VIVA and others changed their program to ringtone-ads and us-funshows music as one of the main youth-media just changed over to the internet. The german magazine „Stern“ has now some really nice article „Musikfernsehen im Internet – Die Erben von Kavka und Kuttner“ about this and many interesting links which point far away along the tail. Some examples: c-tube, balcony TV, bunch TV and Motor TV are filling the gap of the missing link for music video fans now.

4_criterias.pngWhy do I blog this? Everywhere around me people were thinking about how the web might change their business. One of these „people“ was the library (SUUB) of Bremen. These people are searching for what to do and what to change to be successful. Also politicians think about how to support science and companies to develop new, persistent and successful web2.0 services. But no one of those I met, asked what the driving forces behind Web2.0 are. I will try to shed some light upon this question in this part and the remaining 3 plus 1 parts about measuring 2.0, and I hope for some insightful comments. I do not think that I have found the ONE and only truth here, but instead I try to stand on the shoulders of giants. Longtailed’ness seems to be a trivial part – which is why I chose to start with this one – but there are four other parts of the 4+1 in total waiting to revealed soon…

Privacy by Design: The 7 Privacy – Embedded Laws

csclogo.gifToday I payed very close attention towards a presentation held by Dr. Ann Cavoukian (Information and Privacy Commissioner of Ontario) at the Computer Science Club of the University of Waterloo/Canada where she explains „how to design software that properly protects users privacy“. She has also published the book entitled „Who Knows: Safeguarding Your Privacy in a Networked World.“ about these questions (see a Review).

She differentiates the terms „Privacy“ and „Security“ and emphasizes that security and privacy are NOT a zero-sum-game but can be designed to be a win-win-situation. I summed up her core statements graphically below.

privacy_security_big.jpg
The 7 Laws of Embedded Privacy (Click image to zoom!)

Interestingly she also refers to the german law of informational selfdetermination and refers to germany as a leader in data protection. She speaks about identity theft, and that there would be much less problems with it, if data was encrypted in databases.
(via slashdot.org)

See her full presentation captured on video here:

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Why do I blog this? I think public and private IT has to find the best solution to protect the data of users to secure their business & future. I like to compare this with automobiles which got airbags to increase the security, the same kind of „airbag“-solution seems to be necessary for data-protection. Noone needs to get injured in his/her „privacy“ if there happpens to be some data-leakage or data-theft if some kind of encryption-airbag protects the users data in a data-crash-scenario.

Dumbness of the Crowd: Consensus vs. No-Compromises

There’s some sexappeal in the concept of the „Wisdom of the Crowd“. It promises you only need to have enough people building a crowd to get a wise solution! But what kind of problems are fitting to this concept of problemsolving? Kathy Sierra has now thought about this in detail and put up a really thought provoking blogpost entitled „The Dumbness of Crowds“. What will result if you would let the crowd design e.g. a product can be seen if you boot up your windows operating system. Its a system designed by consensus, it was designed the „Swiss Army Knife Way“.

I think wisdom will appear, as soon as the unique efforts of every individual are summed up to complement something. So the wisdom is lying in the very individual effort. Dumbness will establish as soon as the unique effort will become meaningless by amplification or consenus. So, from my perspective it is amplification of the already known versus complementing the already known with a different approach in hope for „the best unique effort takes it all“-consensus.
An example may improve the understanding of this:

If there is a family in a car leaving their home for a holliday trip, there is ONE person doing the steering of the car. The clasic wisdom of the crowds concept suggests that you should have FOUR drivers. but this would mean e.g. steering the car to the left to introduce some overtaking-maneuver and at the same time slowing the car down (because perhaps one person descides to cancel its opinion about overtaking). Driving a car using wisdom of the crowd seems to result in 100% chaos.
In contrast to this rather chaotic approach to problemsolving having ONE driver and THREE passengers which instead complement the driving process e.g. by planning the next stop for coffee or figuring out the best route around some traffic jam would complement the driving-process. Another solution would be to just give all the other three passengers an automobile, too. But this solution needs more energy and promotes individualization even more.

So the praised „Wisdom“ may also be better known as the „Too many cooks spoil the broth.“-approach. Problems arise as soon as the CROWD needs to take responsibility for its actions. WHO is responsible for the results the consensus will bring? In case of one driver of the car the situation is easy: it is the driver who is responsible. But as soon as we have four drivers, who is responsible for the – though consensus-based – car-crash then? The same position is taken by Jason Lonsdale who commented „an individual best achieves optimal stupidity on those rare occasions when one is both given substantial powers and insulated from the results of his or her actions“. Also user Gray comments in the same direction „My preference is the ‚Director-as-Dictator‘ model; where there is a good design team, a lot of different ideas brought to the table, but that energy is harnessed and focused by the Director, who (along with great power) also has ultimate responsibility.“ Did he mention the responsibility question here? I think it is all about responsibility.

The naive „Wisdom of Crowds“ approach results in NO ONE taking responsibility for action. That’s why it will fail! It seems to be a different situation, if we have a crowd in search for direction, so an indifferent crowd for example. In a case where no efforts are made the slightest effort will be in the position of „the best unique effort takes it all“-consensus immediately. This is what we admire in social groups of animals (like ants) which operate in swarm structures. There the group/swarm steers itself as soon as some kind of „the best unique effort takes it all“-consensus is reached. Perhaps the basic effect which drives the socalled „Wisdom of Crowds“ is more some kind of „Storytelling of Crowds“ because everyone now is able to tell (at least to distribute) a story. All these told stories influence us and therefore steer us in a way. (triggering blogpost found via weiterbildungsblog)

Why do I blog this? I think there are no easy solutions for what kind of problem may ever arise. The promise of the crowd is not delivering. The opposite is true, it seems dangerous to not complement but equalize efforts of individuals. At the same time responsibility cannot be shared among a crowd. As soon as you cannot identify who is responsible, risky actions will happen, which won’t happen if someone would have been uniquely identifieable. We see this also in political descisions (e.g. german VAT-increase in 2007) and science-projects everyday. One nice example of a „Frankenproduct“ seems to be the consensus-built swiss army knife versus a no-compromise-machete (see images above).